Gas Prices Are Cutting Your Delivery Orders

Gas hit $4.15 a gallon last week. Before the Iran war started, it was $2.98. That 39% jump is coming directly out of your customers' wallets — and a big chunk of what they're cutting is delivery orders.

Restaurant traffic was already down 2.5% year-over-year heading into spring, according to Revenue Management Solutions. Now, with consumers spending over $8 billion more at gas stations in March alone — a 15.5% monthly increase — the pressure on discretionary spending is real and it's accelerating.

What the Numbers Actually Say

The National Restaurant Association reported that eating and drinking places posted $100.2 billion in sales in March — up just 0.1% from February. That's not a win. That's barely holding the line while gas prices surged. Real restaurant sales (adjusted for inflation) were actually down 1.3% from March 2025. Inflation hit 3.3% in March — the biggest monthly spike in nearly four years, according to the Labor Department. That's the first inflation read to fully capture the Iran war's effect on fuel costs. And it's not done climbing.

Technomic research puts a hard number on the relationship: every 50-cent increase in gas prices has a $68 billion impact on consumer spending. Gas is up more than a dollar from late February. Do the math.

At the Restaurant Leadership Conference in Scottsdale last week, Panda Express CFO David Landsberg said he wakes up every morning and checks the prior day's sales, waiting for the gas price impact to show up. "When you've gone from negative 5% year-over-year spend on gas to plus 20% overnight, that money's coming from somewhere," he said.

Why Delivery Gets Hit First

When consumers tighten up, delivery is one of the first things to go. It's already the most expensive way to order food — platform fees, service charges, and tips can add 30–40% to the ticket price. When a customer is already paying $80 to fill up their tank, a $4 delivery fee on a $20 order starts to feel like a luxury.

Consumer Edge data shows that lower-income households — the core customer base for many independent restaurants and fast-casual chains — allocate a higher share of total spending to fuel. Suburban and rural customers are even more exposed because they drive more. These are your delivery customers.

KFC CFO Tiffany Furman said it plainly at the same conference: "Especially with our consumer, which is sometimes a little bit of the lower-income consumer, they're much more sensitive to gas prices." That's not just a chain problem. That's every independent operator running delivery through DoorDash, Uber Eats, or Grubhub.

Here's the compounding problem: when delivery volume drops, every order that gets refunded or canceled without payment hits harder. You're working with a smaller pool of revenue. Losing even a few hundred dollars a month to unauthorized refunds or unpaid canceled orders is a bigger percentage of your total when volume is down.

What You Can Do About It This Week

You can't control gas prices. You can control how much revenue leaks out of your operation while volume is under pressure. Here's where to focus:

Push value without destroying margin. KFC's response was a tiered value lineup — $7, $9, and $11 meal boxes — that highlights their boneless chicken options. You don't need to discount your whole menu. Pick two or three items that have strong food cost and build a visible value offer around them. Delivery customers are price-sensitive right now. Give them a reason to order instead of cook at home.

Audit your delivery app payouts. When volume is down, you need every dollar that's owed to you. Pull your last 90 days of payout reports from DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub. Look for orders that were refunded after delivery, canceled orders you never got paid for, and adjustments you didn't authorize. Most operators find errors they didn't know existed.

Protect your existing customer base. A customer who already orders from you is worth more right now than a new one. Respond to your reviews — especially the negative ones. A thoughtful response with a coupon code for a future order can turn a one-star complaint into a repeat customer. That's not a nice-to-have when traffic is soft. That's a revenue strategy.

Don't raise prices right now if you can avoid it. Panda Express raised prices two weeks ago and their own CFO admitted the timing was bad. If you're already running lean, look for cost savings in your supply chain and labor scheduling before touching menu prices. Consumers are already stretched — a price increase on delivery, where they're already paying a premium, can push them to cook at home instead.

Stop Losing Revenue You Already Earned

When delivery volume drops, the math on refund losses gets uglier fast. If you're doing $15,000 a month in delivery revenue and losing 3–5% to unauthorized refunds and unpaid canceled orders, that's $450–$750 a month walking out the door. In a soft-volume environment, that's the difference between a profitable month and a losing one.

That's exactly what Jelly handles for you. Jelly audits your DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub payouts, disputes unauthorized refunds and unpaid canceled orders on your behalf, and recovers the money you're owed — with a 91% recovery rate. No contracts, no upfront cost, and a free trial so you can see what you've been losing before you commit to anything.

The National Restaurant Association's chief economist said it best at RLC: "Focus on that overall experience so that you can increase those overall traffic trends." That's the long game. But the short game — right now, this week — is making sure you're not giving away revenue you already earned. Gas prices may come down when the geopolitical situation stabilizes. Until then, your margins don't have room for leaks.